GMSR Shrink–Swell Potential
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Map Information
The Global Shrink–Swell Potential Raster (GMSR-SS) v2 is a global geospatial dataset representing the relative susceptibility of soils to volumetric expansion and contraction resulting from moisture fluctuations.
Location Analysis
Technical Specifications
Global Shrink–Swell Potential Raster (GMSR-SS) v2.0
Raster File
GMSR_Shrink_Swell_v2_0_100.tif
Public Dataset URL
https://secure.engineeringdirector.com/public/map/GMSR_Shrink_Swell_v2_0_100
Product Overview
The Global Shrink–Swell Potential Raster (GMSR-SS) is a global geospatial dataset representing the relative susceptibility of soils to volumetric expansion and contraction resulting from fluctuations in soil moisture.
Shrink–swell behavior is primarily associated with expansive clay-rich soils that increase in volume when wetted and contract during drying. Repeated wetting and drying cycles can produce differential ground movement capable of affecting buildings, foundations, pipelines, pavements, utilities, and other infrastructure.
The dataset identifies regions where soil composition and climatic forcing create favorable conditions for shrink–swell activity and provides a continuous susceptibility score ranging from 0–100.
The product serves as a core component within the Global Ground Movement Susceptibility Raster (GMSR) framework.
Applications include:
- Infrastructure planning
- Foundation screening
- Pipeline routing
- Transportation corridor assessment
- Utility planning
- Geohazard evaluation
- Environmental assessment
- Land-use planning
- Asset management
- Ground movement risk evaluation
Product Family
The Global Shrink–Swell Potential Raster (GMSR-SS) is one of five component products comprising the Global Ground Movement Susceptibility Raster (GMSR) framework.
Component products include:
- Landslide Susceptibility
- Soil Creep Potential
- Shrink–Swell Potential
- Subsidence Susceptibility
- Seismic Amplification
These component rasters may be used independently or within the integrated GMSR framework.
Product Status
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Product Status | Released |
| Validation Status | Expert Review |
| Version | 2.0 |
| Release Date | 2026 |
Dataset Information
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Product Name | Global Shrink–Swell Potential Raster |
| Short Name | GMSR-SS |
| Version | 2.0 |
| Coverage | Global |
| Coordinate System | WGS 84 (EPSG:4326) |
| Resolution | ~1 km |
| Raster Format | GeoTIFF |
| Cell Type | Float32 |
| Standardized Display Range | 0–100 |
| Observed Raster Range | 0.12–83.61 |
| Units | Relative Susceptibility Score |
| NoData Value | None |
| Temporal Basis | Contemporary Soil and Climate Datasets |
| Update Frequency | Periodic |
| Primary Output | Shrink–Swell Potential Score |
Raster Statistics
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Minimum | 0.12 |
| Maximum | 83.61 |
| Mean | 35.15 |
| Standard Deviation | 10.88 |
Interpretation
The observed maximum value of 83.61 indicates that no location globally achieved the theoretical maximum susceptibility score.
The standardized 0–100 display range is retained to ensure consistency across all GMSR component products and the composite GMSR framework.
Score Interpretation
| Score Range | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| 0–20 | Very Low Shrink–Swell Potential |
| 20–40 | Low Shrink–Swell Potential |
| 40–60 | Moderate Shrink–Swell Potential |
| 60–80 | High Shrink–Swell Potential |
| 80–100 | Very High Shrink–Swell Potential |
Scores represent relative susceptibility to expansive soil behavior and should not be interpreted as direct measurements of soil expansion or contraction.
Visualization Standard
The official GMSR product family visualization standard is used.
| Color Theme | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Blue | Low Susceptibility |
| Cream / Tan | Moderate Susceptibility |
| Orange | Elevated Susceptibility |
| Red | High Susceptibility |
The GMSR product family utilizes a standardized 0–100 visualization scale to ensure consistent interpretation across all component and composite products.
Individual raster datasets may not occupy the full 0–100 range; however, the visualization standard remains fixed to support cross-product comparison and portfolio-level analysis.
Display legends are standardized across the GMSR product family and may extend beyond the observed minimum and maximum raster values. Actual raster statistics are reported within the Dataset Information and Raster Statistics sections.
Methodology Summary
The Global Shrink–Swell Potential Raster evaluates susceptibility to expansive soil behavior using globally consistent datasets representing clay content, soil water retention properties, Vertisol occurrence, and climatic wetting–drying cycles.
The model integrates four primary predictor variables:
- Clay Content
- Vertisol Presence
- Wet–Dry Cycles
- Soil Wilting Point
The weighted susceptibility framework includes:
- Clay Content (40%)
- Vertisol Presence (30%)
- Wet–Dry Cycles (15%)
- Soil Wilting Point (15%)
All inputs are normalized to a common 0–100 susceptibility framework and combined to generate a globally standardized shrink–swell potential index.
The resulting raster represents relative susceptibility to shrink–swell ground movement rather than direct measurements of soil expansion or contraction.
Input Variables
Clay Content
Derived from ISRIC SoilGrids clay fraction datasets.
Clay-rich soils are the primary driver of shrink–swell behavior due to their ability to absorb and release water.
Higher clay content generally corresponds to greater susceptibility.
Model Weight: 40%
Vertisol Presence
Derived from World Reference Base (WRB) soil classifications.
Vertisols are highly expansive clay soils that undergo significant volumetric change in response to moisture fluctuations.
The model incorporates occurrence probabilities for:
- Calcic Vertisols
- Haplic Vertisols
- Haplic Vertisols (Eutric)
- Mollic Vertisols
Model Weight: 30%
Wet–Dry Cycles
Derived from global wet–dry cycle climatology (2020–2024).
Repeated wetting and drying cycles provide the environmental forcing necessary to activate shrink–swell processes.
Areas experiencing frequent moisture fluctuations receive higher susceptibility scores.
Model Weight: 15%
Soil Wilting Point
Derived from ISRIC SoilGrids wilting point datasets.
Wilting point serves as an indicator of soil water retention behavior and contributes to characterization of expansive soil conditions.
Model Weight: 15%
Relationship to GMSR
The Shrink–Swell Potential Raster serves as a core component of the Global Ground Movement Susceptibility Raster (GMSR).
Product Lineage
This dataset is a component product within the Global Ground Movement Susceptibility Raster (GMSR) framework and contributes 15% of the final composite GMSR score.
GMSR Weighting
| Component | Weight |
|---|---|
| Landslide Susceptibility | 30% |
| Soil Creep Potential | 20% |
| Shrink–Swell Potential | 15% |
| Subsidence Susceptibility | 15% |
| Seismic Amplification | 20% |
Validation
Validation Approach
Validation was performed through comparison with known regions of expansive clay occurrence, documented infrastructure damage zones, published geotechnical studies, and mapped Vertisol distributions.
Model outputs were evaluated against regions known to experience shrink–swell related foundation damage and expansive soil hazards.
Validation Summary
Areas identified as highly susceptible correspond closely with:
- Central and Southern United States
- Northern India
- Eastern Australia
- East African Rift Regions
- Mediterranean Basin
- Central Asia
- Sudan and Ethiopia
- Argentine Pampas
Validation demonstrated strong agreement between modeled susceptibility and known expansive soil environments at continental and regional scales.
Validation is intended to support screening-level geospatial analysis rather than site-specific geotechnical investigations.
Spatial Distribution Characteristics
The Global Shrink–Swell Potential Raster exhibits elevated values in regions characterized by expansive clay-rich soils and recurring moisture variability.
High susceptibility values are concentrated within:
- Vertisol-rich regions
- Clay-rich sedimentary basins
- Semi-arid climates with pronounced wet–dry cycles
- Agricultural plains with expansive soils
- Seasonal monsoon environments
Lower susceptibility values generally occur within:
- Rocky mountain terrain
- Coarse-grained sandy regions
- Tropical rainforest environments
- Permanently saturated wetlands
- Arid deserts lacking expansive clay soils
The absence of elevated scores in some regions should not be interpreted as absence of shrink–swell behavior. Rather, it indicates comparatively lower susceptibility under the standardized global framework.
Source Datasets
Related Products
Primary GMSR Products
GMSR Component Products
Limitations
- Intended for screening and planning purposes.
- Not a substitute for site-specific geotechnical investigation.
- Does not predict actual shrinkage or expansion magnitudes.
- Does not estimate foundation movement.
- Does not incorporate local engineering soil investigations.
- Does not represent real-time moisture conditions.
- Does not constitute an engineering design product.
Revision History
| Version | Date | Description |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | 2026 | Updated global shrink–swell framework using SoilGrids clay content, SoilGrids wilting point, WRB Vertisol occurrence, and wet–dry cycle climatology. |
Source Citations
ISRIC SoilGrids
Poggio, L., de Sousa, L.M., Batjes, N.H., et al.
SoilGrids 2.0: Producing soil information for the globe with quantified spatial uncertainty.
SOIL.
WRB
IUSS Working Group WRB.
World Reference Base for Soil Resources.
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).
Attribution
Joseph Mazzella
Nicole Mazzella
AtmosphericIQ LLC
Engineering Director, Inc.
Dataset Citation
Mazzella, J., Mazzella, N. (2026).
Global Shrink–Swell Potential Raster (GMSR-SS) v2.0.
AtmosphericIQ LLC / Engineering Director, Inc.
Version Information
| Property | Value |
|---|---|
| Dataset Name | Global Shrink–Swell Potential Raster |
| Dataset Version | 2.0 |
| Publication Year | 2026 |
| Authors | Joseph Mazzella, Nicole Mazzella |
| Organization | AtmosphericIQ LLC / Engineering Director, Inc. |
| Resolution | ~1 km |
| Coordinate System | WGS 84 (EPSG:4326) |
| Coverage | Global |
| Standardized Display Range | 0–100 |
| Observed Raster Range | 0.12–83.61 |
| Raster Type | Continuous |
| Cell Type | Float32 |
| Primary Output | Shrink–Swell Potential Score |
| Processing Framework | GMSR Shrink–Swell Framework v2 |
Data Distribution Analysis
These histograms show the distribution of pixel values across the entire raster dataset, helping you understand the range and frequency of different measurements.